Analysis of Canada’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan

Canada’s latest immigration plan introduces new PR allocations, tighter caps, and important case law clarifying the rules around commitment certificates—all of which significantly impact the Start-Up Visa program. Learn how these changes could affect your pathway to permanent residence and what entrepreneurs need to know to stay ahead.

Analysis of Canada’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan

Canada’s new immigration plan and its impact on economic programs and the SUV Program

The 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan introduces a recalibration to Canada’s permanent resident (PR) targets, reducing overall admissions from 395,000 in 2025 to 365,000 by 2027. Despite the reduction, the economic immigration category remains prioritized, with nearly 62% of all PR admissions projected to come from this category by 2027. This emphasis aims to attract skilled workers, entrepreneurs, and business leaders who can bolster Canada’s long-term economic growth.

These adjusted targets reflect Canada’s strategy to balance immigration demand with the country’s capacity to support newcomers, particularly in terms of housing, healthcare, and employment. Minister Marc Miller recently emphasized this shift, pointing out concerns about Canada’s reliance on temporary foreign workers and the need to address affordability issues.

In addition, the Minister also realigned permanent immigration levels going forward to address changing economic circumstances in Canada, including reforms to the Start-Up Visa program.

Proposed reduction in Permanent Residence Allocation for Canada’s Start-Up Visa Program

Proposed reduction in Permanent Residence Allocation for Canada’s Start-Up Visa Program

Within this economic reorientation, the Start-Up Visa program has experienced notable PR allocation reductions:

  • 2023: 3,500 spots*
  • 2024: 5,000 spots*
  • 2025: 2,000 spots
  • 2026: 1,000 spots
  • 2027: 1,000 spots

(*2023 and 2024 allocations include both the Start-Up Visa and Self-employed categories.)

These reductions mean greater selectivity within the SUV program, prompting designated entities to issue certificates only to ventures with strong, scalable business plans.

The increased scrutiny underscores Canada’s goal to maintain quality and integrity within the SUV program, focusing on high-impact ventures with clear economic benefits.

Strategic Use of the 3-Year Open Work Permit for SUV Applicants

In 2024, IRCC introduced a three-year open work permit to provide SUV applicants flexibility while their PR applications are processed. This work permit allows applicants to engage in Canadian business activities and establish their ventures without waiting for an Acknowledgment of Receipt (AOR).

While the work permit offers essential flexibility, applicants should carefully consider how they utilize it to maximize benefits and align with their immigration goals:

  • Be Mindful of Activities Outside Your SUV Venture. Although an open work permit allows freedom to work in various roles, engaging in activities unrelated to the SUV business could impact the perceived commitment to the SUV venture. Officers assessing PR applications may view unrelated activities unfavorably, so it’s crucial to be strategic in exercising the rights under an open permit to avoid undermining the authenticity of the SUV application.
  • Ensure Full Compliance with SUV Requirements. When applying for a three-year open work permit under the SUV program, applicants must meet all regulatory and policy requirements. With high scrutiny and refusal rates, thoroughly prepared applications that address each regulatory requirement can mitigate the risk of refusal.

The extended duration of this permit provides critical time for entrepreneurs to establish their businesses, allowing them to build a foundation that supports permanent residence under the Start-up Visa Program.

Case Law and Trends in 2025: Federal Court Decision on Commitment Certificates

A significant recent development for the SUV program is the Federal Court decision in Orouji v Canada [2024 FC 1736]. This ruling clarified a critical rule regarding the use of Commitment Certificates in SUV applications. According to the decision, once an SUV application is filed, the Commitment Certificate associated with that application cannot be replaced, even if a new certificate offers better terms or funding. The court emphasized that the initial certificate must remain valid throughout the entire PR application process.

While legal arguments were submitted to the court for broader interpretation allowing applicants to enhance their prospects by updating certificates, the court upheld a narrow view. Here are the main takeaways:

  • Original Certificate Required – The initial Commitment Certificate must remain consistent through the application.
  • Strict Compliance – Officers will not allow substitutions, focusing on the original certificate from the designated entity.
  • Pending Issues – The validity of amended certificates from the same designated entity remains unclear. This lack of clarity may be especially challenging given recent changes like the application cap.
  • Looking Ahead – More Federal Court rulings on SUV cases are anticipated, likely providing further clarity for applicants navigating this evolving landscape.

This ruling underscores the importance of a consistent, thorough Commitment Certificate and highlights the need for early risk assessments and strategic actions in the SUV application process. Greenberg Hameed offers guidance on these matters and other crucial aspects of Canada’s immigration landscape.

Ongoing Changes from 2024: New Cap and Operational Guidelines

In April 2024, IRCC introduced a set of operational guidelines and limitations for the SUV program aimed at addressing the backlog and enhancing processing efficiency:

  • Application Cap: The April 2024 policy introduced a cap limiting each designated organization to supporting a maximum of 10 start-up applications per year. This cap, expected to remain in place into the new year, encourages designated entities to prioritize high-potential ventures and focus on the program’s integrity.
  • Priority Processing for Canadian-backed Ventures: Start-ups backed by Canadian capital or supported by incubators in Canada’s Tech Network now qualify for priority processing. This retroactive policy prioritizes start-ups aligned with Canadian economic goals, expediting applications for promising ventures.
  • Updated Operational Guidelines: The IRCC released additional operational guidelines, clarifying processes for SUV applications:
    • Commitment Certificate Modifications Restricted: Commitment Certificates may only be updated until the first SUV PR application from any team member is filed, requiring entities to provide accurate information from the start.
    • Changes to Essential Team Members: If an essential team member gains PR through another program or passes away, the remaining group will be assessed. The application may still be approved if all other requirements are met.
    • Completeness Requirement for Group Applications: IRCC will process group applications only when all applications for the business venture meet completeness checks under section R10 of the Regulations.

These updates emphasize quality and integrity within the SUV program, realigning it with its original intent to support high-impact, innovative ventures. The cap on commitment certificates and the new guidelines require applicants and designated entities to ensure consistency and accuracy in their initial submissions.

Best Practices for Navigating the SUV Program Under the New Immigration Plan

Given the recent policy shifts, applicants and designated entities should adopt proactive strategies to increase their chances of success:

  • Develop High-Quality Business Plans: With heightened scrutiny, business plans should be comprehensive, detailing the venture’s innovation, market potential, and anticipated economic benefits for Canada.
  • Engage with Designated Entities: Strong collaboration with designated venture capital funds, angel investors, and business incubators can enhance an application’s credibility and overall strength.
  • Use the Open Work Permit Strategically: The three-year open work permit allows entrepreneurs time to establish a business presence in Canada. Applicants should focus on measurable progress in their business activities to strengthen their PR application.
  • Stay Updated on Policy Changes: Keep informed about policy changes and processing trends impacting the application process.
  • Seek Independent Review of Applications: Given the increased focus on application accuracy, an independent review by a qualified stakeholder can ensure completeness and address potential areas of concern. Where necessary, applicants should provide additional documentation to mitigate risks. This is particularly important where there have been material changes to the business or changes to the commitment certificate.
  • Explore Legal Remedies for Delays: For applicants facing prolonged processing times, legal actions such as writs of mandamus can help ensure timely decision-making.

Conclusion

Canada’s Start-Up Visa program is navigating substantial changes, with an emphasis on quality, compliance, and a selective intake of high-impact ventures. From PR allocation reductions and the strategic use of open work permits to Federal Court rulings on Commitment Certificates, SUV applicants must be proactive and prepared to navigate this complex landscape.

Contact GH to Learn More: If you are an aspiring SUV applicant, have a pending application, or are a designated entity and seeking clarification on Canada’s SUV program, requirements, or policies, please feel free to contact our team to learn more.

The content of this bulletin is for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide or be relied on as legal advice.

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